ELECTION UPDATE – AT 8:45 A.M. ET:  From the horse's mouth.  One of President Obama's chief political advisers paints a dire picture for Democrats in the upcoming midterms.  From The Hill:

President Obama's top political guru said Tuesday that he believes 70 House races and 15 Senate races are in play this fall.

White House senior adviser David Plouffe — Obama's 2008 presidential campaign manager — said that a bevy of races were in play, from the national to local level.

"There are a lot of competitive races out there. There's going to be at least 70 House races in play, about 15 competitive Senate races, a couple dozen tough gubernatorial races," he said in a video to supporters of Organizing for America, the president's political arm.

Plouffe painted a picture of a dire electoral landscape in which, if Democrats were to lose the majority of those races, their losses would be massive.

The Democratic political guru encouraged party members to get out the vote this fall by helping to volunteer, and focus in particular on turning out first-time voters who supported Obama in 2008.

COMMENT:  Problem is, those first-time voters have become disillusioned.  Their political prince did not bring peace on Earth and good will toward men, the way he'd promised.  And the oceans didn't recede either.

But again, we note that the election won't be held today.  We get great encouragement from tracking polls, but they can be very erratic.  Last week's 10-point GOP lead in the generic Congressional poll, heralded in the political press, was erased by yesterday's Gallup poll, which showed the parties even at 46%.  It will change again I'm sure.  I'm much more impressed by individual state and district polls.

The real fight is just starting.

September 8, 2010